Of Volatility and Tail Risk Management

On April 15, 2013, Pensions & Investments published a special volatility management section.  Ever since the credit crisis of 2008, institutional investors have been seeking protection against volatility.  In the article Investors adapting portfolios to volatile environment, Christine Williamson and Kevin Olsen identified eight ways investors were solving this:

• Portfolio diversification using traditional or risk factor asset allocation
• Liability-driven investment - have a bond portfolio to match the institution's liabilities and an equity portfolio for enhanced returns
• Risk parity - set target risk levels and divide equally across diversified, low volatility and uncorrelated assets; use leverage to enhance returns of the low volatility assets.  AQR Capital Management has $25 billion in assets under management with this approach.
• Invest in low volatility equities and bonds.  Some fund managers in this strategy are AJO LP ($1 billion in equities), Acadian Asset Management ($5 billion in equities) and GAM USA ($15 billion in fixed income).
• Invest in active volatility trading strategies to hedge against tail risks and to provide extra returns. PIMCO ($20 billion AUM) and Capula Investment Management are two funds in this sphere.
• Tail risk hedging from drawdowns of 20% or more
• Use derivative overlays to protect portfolios from downside volatility.  The practitioners in this space are Russell Investments ($5 billion) and NISA Investmtne Advisors ($20 billion).
• All-in-one solutions that use the some or all of the above methods

Other investors are using the all-in-one approach.  Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) is using a liability hedged portfolio of liability-driven investment(government and real return bonds), portfolio diversification (real estate), equity derivative overlay and absolute return.  From 2003 to 2012, their annual return is 10.3% versus 8.9% for their benchmark.

The Fairfield County Employees' Retirement System is using liability-driven investing (leveraged fixed income portfolio and equities), portfolio diversification (real estate and commodities) and absolute return (global macro, multi-strategy and distressed credit funds).  Their 10 year return is 10.4%.

In the Alternative Investment Analyst Review, Andrew Rozanov, CAIA, Managing Director, Head of Permal Sovereign Advisory recommends using global macro hedge fund strategy to hedge tail risk instead of investing in a tail risk fund.  Global macro fund managers have more flexibility than tail risk managers.  They can be long or short volatility.  They are cheaper and have the potential for better returns.

Mike Sebastian, Partner at Hewitt EnnisKnupp, Inc. and Zoltan Karacsony, CFA, Investment Consultant at Hewitt EnnisKnupp, Inc. like low volatility equities, managed futures and global macro strategies for tail risk protection.  The issues with low volatility equities strategy are that it is difficult to predict the future volatility of a stock, trading costs weigh down returns, the strategy is not effective at all times and not proven to outperform the benchmarks conclusively.  Managed futures are good hedges in low volatility and bad markets.  They tend to underperform in high volatility and trendless markets.  They agree with Rozanov and like global macro for its flexibility.

Four people from SSgA:  Robert Benson, CFA, Senior Quantitative Research Analyst, Advanced Research Center; Robert Shapiro, CFA, CAIA, Investment Solutions; Dane Smith, Investment Strategist, Alternative Investments and Ric Thomas, CFA, Head of Strategy and Research, Investment Solutions analyzed nine variations of four tail risk strategies.  They were long volatility (VIX 1 month futures, VIX 5 month futures, variance swaps on the Standard & Poors' 500 for 1 month and 3 month 6 month contracts), low volatility equities (long low beta stocks and short high beta stocks of the Russell 3000 Index and short bias strategies), trend following (Barclays CTA Index) and equity exposure management (buy out of the money puts of the S&P 500 and go long/short when 10 month moving average is below/above the trend line).  The strategies with the highest certainty of protection and lowest performance drag were trend following and long low beta and short high beta stocks strategies.

Investors should take an overall approach that encompasses a diversified, risk-based model with sufficient hedging (against inflation, deflation and interest rate risk) plus a global macro allocation to be long volatility.

The sources for this article can be accessed below:

Investors adapting portfolios to volatile environment by Christine Williamson and Kevin Olsen

Investors keep a watchful eye on the horizon for risk by Christine Williamson and Kevin Olsen

Alternative Investment Analyst Review, Q1 2013

"Long Term Investors, Tail Risk Hedging and the Role of Global Macro in Institutional Portfolios" by Andrew Rozanov, CAIA, Managing Director, Head of Permal Sovereign Advisory

"Tales from the Downside:  Risk Reduction Strategies" by Mike Sebastian, Partner at Hewitt EnnisKnupp, Inc. and Zoltan Karacsony, CFA, Investment Consultant at Hewitt EnnisKnupp, Inc.

"A Comparison of Tail Risk Protection Strategies in the U.S. Market" by Robert Benson, CFA, Senior Quantitative Research Analyst, Advanced Research Center, SSgA; Robert Shapiro, CFA, CAIA, Investment Solutions, SSgA; Dane Smith, Investment Strategist, Alternative Investments, SSgA and Ric Thomas, CFA, Head of Strategy and Research, Investment Solutions, SSgA.